Published September 3, 2020

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 27.7% Year-over-year

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Written by Bryn DeBeikes

Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 27.7% Year-over-year header image.

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 29 August

U.S. hotel occupancy decreased slightly for the second consecutive week, according to the latest data from STR.

23-29 August 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019):

• Occupancy: 48.2% (-27.7%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$98.39 (-23.2%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$47.38 (-44.5%)

The industry sold 237,000 fewer room nights than the previous week, which represented a demand decrease of 1.3%. Week-over-week demand improvements were a constant since mid-April, but as summer ends and leisure travel fades, hotel performance gains have flattened.
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average.

Hotel Occupancy RateClick on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels).

The leisure travel season usually peaks at the beginning of August, and then the occupancy rate typically declines sharply in the Fall.  So "flat" isn't terrible.

With so many schools closed, the leisure travel season might have lasted longer than usual this year, but it is unlikely business travel will pickup significantly in the Fall.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

Weekly Schedule

The key economic reports this week are August Housing Starts and Retail Sales.

For manufacturing, August Industrial Production, and the September New York and Philly Fed surveys, will be released this week.

The FOMC meets this week, and no change to policy is expected.

----- Monday, September 14th -----

No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, September 15th -----

8:30 AM ET: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 5.9, up from 3.7.

Industrial Production9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for August.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 71.5%.

----- Wednesday, September 16th -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

Year-over-year change in Retail Sales8:30 AM ET: Retail sales for August will be released.  The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.2% on a YoY basis in July.

10:00 AM: The September NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of  78, unchanged from 78 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. No change to policy is expected at this meeting.

2:00 PM: FOMC Forecasts This will include the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) participants' projections of the appropriate target federal funds rate along with the quarterly economic projections.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, September 17th -----

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts8:30 AM: Housing Starts for August.

This graph shows single and total housing starts since 1968.

The consensus is for 1.470 million SAAR, down from 1.496 million SAAR.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The early consensus is for a 900 thousand initial claims, up from 884 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for September. The consensus is for a reading of 15.5, down from 17.2.

----- Friday, September 18th -----

10:00 AM: State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for August 2020

10:00 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (Preliminary for September).

Original article posted to calculatedriskblog.com



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